The introduction of a partial military service system can ensure the involvement of 300,000 to 800,000 volunteers, according to the results of a comprehensive study of the mobilization potential of Ukraine and the reform of the mobilization system in Ukraine, presented by the research and analytical group InfoLight.UA together with experts from the Ukrainian Security Club at the Interfax-Ukraine press center on Thursday, January 6.

"Our study shows that 34.2% of Ukrainians are ready to voluntarily mobilize provided that the partial military service model is introduced. Of these, 7.8% of respondents noted that they would definitely mobilize, and 26.4% answered that they would rather mobilize," said founder of Active Group Andriy Yeremenko.

The model of partial military service envisages that servicemen will spend 25-30% of their time in the defense forces, and the rest - in civilian life. For example, two to three months of service will be replaced by six months of civilian life. This will help maintain the economic activity of citizens and ensure regular rotation of troops.

"There is a negative feedback between the complexity of military service and mobilization - the more difficult the service, the more difficult it is to find people willing to voluntarily mobilize. With the existing approach of forced mobilization, it is impossible to break this negative feedback," explained Ph.D. in applied mathematics Oleksandr Ivanov, the author of the mathematical model of the reform.

According to him, the model demonstrates that under the current system, the optimal strategy for citizens is to evade service. However, the proposed reform creates conditions under which voluntary mobilization becomes beneficial for both parties.

"We see a collapse of public administration in this area. At the same time, the proposed reform can not only solve the problem of staffing the army, but also reduce social tension," the expert emphasized.

The study included a mass survey of 1,200 respondents through the SunFlower Sociology online panel, in-depth interviews with 100 conscripts, mathematical modeling based on game theory, and an analysis of international experience.

"It is important to understand that this is not just statistics. In-depth interviews show that people are ready to defend the country, but they need clear rules of the game and the opportunity to combine service with civilian life. Partial military service can become the social contract that is so lacking now," said Yuriy Honcharenko, head of InfoLight.UA.

According to experts, the implementation of the reform will ensure regular rotation of troops, maintain the economic activity of the mobilized, reduce social tension and create a reliable reserve for the country's defense.

It is noted that about 3 million citizens can be involved in transferring most of the defense forces to partial mobilization.

"This is an ambitious task, but it responds to the challenge from Russia regarding readiness for a long war and will most likely make new attacks on Ukraine impossible in the event of a ceasefire," the expert notes.

It is proposed to begin the implementation of the reform with a pilot project in one or two brigades to test mechanisms and establish processes. This is especially relevant in the context of the current collapse of public administration in the sphere of mobilization and the threatening chaos of processes.

The InfoLight.UA research and analytical group was created in May 2022 as a volunteer initiative. Since October of the same year, it has received institutional support from the Hans Seidel Foundation in Ukraine. The group cooperates with the Security and Defense Forces of Ukraine and has received several awards. The work uses the most modern tools and methods, including artificial intelligence to track malicious narratives. Since November 2024, the team's experts have been members of the Ukrainian Security Club. The presented study was conducted with its organizational support.