Ministry of Economy predicts 35-40% fall in economy by late 2022 – Svyrydenko
The real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in the remaining months of 2022 may fall by 35-40% due to the war unleashed by Russia, First Deputy Prime Minister, Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko has said.
"According to our calculations, according to the macroeconomic forecasts made by the Ministry of Economy, the curtailment of the economy by the end of the year may be at the level of 35-40%," she said during the national telethon on Friday.
Svyrydenko said that in addition to winning on the military front, on the economic front, an important task is to maintain economic stability and macroeconomic stability and look for ways to stimulate economic activity in the state.
"If we are talking about this path, we should help those enterprises that have already worked, have staff and sales markets and have been able to reorganize over the past six months so that they continue to work actively," the minister said.
According to her, in addition to the microgrant program and eRobota, the government is developing changes to the 5-7-9 program so that enterprises in the front-line areas, whose assets have been destroyed, have the opportunity to take a loan and recover.
As reported, the National Bank predicts a slowdown in the decline in Ukraine's real GDP in the third and fourth quarters of 2022 compared to the same period last year to 37.5% from 39.3% in the second quarter.
According to NBU estimates, in the first quarter of 2023, the economy will also contract by another 19%, given the base of the first quarter of this year, when the decline was 15.1%, and recovery will begin from the second quarter of next year. In particular, in the second quarter it will be 17.5%, in the third 13.2% and in the fourth 12.3%.
In general, by the end of 2022, the National Bank predicts a decline in GDP by 33.4% and its growth by 5.5% in 2023 and 4.9% in 2024.