Business expectations in Jan deteriorate seasonally, slightly higher than year ago – NBU
The Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI), which is calculated monthly by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), in January 2026 decreased by 7.9 points compared to December 2025 – to 41.3 from 49.2, while being slightly higher than the level of January 2025 (41.0), the regulator reported on its website.
"The index’s subdued performance resulted from seasonal factors… Other contributing factors included the rising cost of backup power supplies, logistical hurdles, a shortage of qualified staff, and worsening exchange rate expectations," the NBU reported.
At the same time, factors with a positive impact continued to include inflows of international financial assistance and slowing inflation.
Industrial enterprises assessed the results of their current operations more cautiously than a month earlier: the sectoral index stood at 41.7 in January, down from 46.5 in December (41.7 in January 2025). Industrial companies expected a decline in output and new orders, including export orders, as well as in work in progress.
Construction companies posted the most subdued assessments: the sectoral index fell to 37.9 in January from 47.6 in December (37.2 in January 2025) amid difficult weather conditions and rising costs due to disruptions in energy supplies. Respondents forecast a decline in construction volumes and new orders.
In trade, after 10 months of positive expectations, assessments deteriorated sharply: the sectoral index stood at 40.0 in January, down from 52.2 in December (40.0 in January 2025). Trading companies expected lower turnover, reduced purchases of goods for resale and smaller inventories, and continued to anticipate a decline in trade margins.
Service-sector enterprises also lowered their assessments: the sectoral index stood at 42.1 in January, down from 49.8 in December (41.1 in January 2025) due to rising labor and heating costs, logistical difficulties, and increased demand for energy resources and labor.
The regulator also said that against the backdrop of the expected acceleration in the growth of input prices, respondents in all sectors anticipated further increases in prices and tariffs for their own products and services, while the National Bank of Ukraine described the labor market situation as unstable: managers in all sectors were inclined to reduce overall staffing levels, primarily in industry.
It was clarified that the business survey was conducted from Jan. 5 to Jan. 22, 2026, and included 594 enterprises, of which 44.1% were industrial companies, 25.3% were in the services sector, 24.7% in trade and 5.9% in construction. By size, 31.1% were large enterprises, 29.5% medium-sized and 29.4% small.
Of the respondents, 34.3% carried out both export and import operations, 9.1% conducted only export operations, 17.8% only import operations, and 38.7% did not engage in foreign economic activity.