NBU worsens inflation forecast in Ukraine in 2026 to 7.5%, to 6% in 2027
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has worsened the inflation forecast in the country for 2026 from 6.6% in its October inflation report to 7.5%, and for 2027 – from 5% to 6%.
"Inflation will keep declining in the coming months, primarily thanks to the continued effects of stronger harvests of 2025. At the same time, the impact of the massive damage in the energy sector will put pressure on prices through both market and administrative mechanisms," the regulator said in a release.
According to its updated forecast, achieving the 5% inflation target has now been moved from late 2027 to mid-2028.
"The NBU’s monetary policy will contribute to curbing the underlying price pressure. However, deferred effects of the damage to the energy sector will put the brakes on disinflation. The NBU forecasts inflation to decline to 6% at the end of 2027 and reach the target of 5% in 2028," the regulator reported.
The National Bank added that it expects inflation to slow due to a reduction in energy shortages, easing external price pressures, higher harvests and an improved labor market as security risks decline.
As reported, inflation in Ukraine fell to 8% in 2025 from 12% a year earlier. In 2023, it declined to 5.1% after surging to 26.6% the previous year.
In late October 2025, the National Bank of Ukraine improved its inflation forecast for 2025 to 9.2% from 9.7% in its July macroeconomic outlook and kept its 2026 inflation projection unchanged at 6.6%.