Adnan Rahman, Team Leader of the EU-financed project "Assistance to the Ukrainian authorities for establishment of National transport model and master plan" discussed the importance of an analytical approach to infrastructure projects and how the National transport model can assist in Ukraine's recovery in an interview to "Interfax-Ukraine."

Text: Oksana Gryshyna
 

What is the current stage of Ukraine's National transport model development? The EU-financed project  (https://euneighbourseast.eu/ru/projects/eu-project-page/?id=443) was started in 2018. Was there a possibility to transfer outputs to the Ministry for Communities, Territories and Infrastructure Development of Ukraine (hereinafter – the Ministry) before the full-scale invasion?

The National Transport Model of Ukraine (hereinafter – NTMU) was completed last year.   However, work on expanding and improving the NTMU continues.  The NTMU has been expanded to include the Trans-European Networks – Transport (TEN-T), the Ukrainian inland waterway networks, and include the most recent data.

Another focus of the work now is to prepare the Ministry to accept and use the NTMU.  The Ministry has needs in qualified and competent specialists to effectively maintain, update, and use the model.  In this phase of the work we are helping to create the capacity within the Ministry and/or one or more of its subordinate organizations to maintain, update and use the NTMU.
 

Is the war the main reason for the lack of capacity to maintain and use the NTMU at the Ministry?

Yes, the use of models such as the NTMU to support the making of transport policy is still very new in Ukraine.  Thus, the capacity to maintain and use models was very limited at the Ministry.  The onset of this war exacerbated and complicated our capacity building efforts.  During, and because of the war, there have been many changes in the staff at the Ministry, the Ministry has had to carry out many new tasks connected with the accession process to the European Union, and there has been a reduction in the number of staff at the Ministry.  Furthermore, our staff have not been able to travel to Kyiv as frequently as we would have ideally liked, and we have not been able to engage in the personal interactions that are necessary to build capacity.

How many employees does the Ministry need to properly work on the model and maintain it?

There are many levels of capability and competence needed for maintaining and using the NTMU. The first level is just the technical capability and competence to maintain and update the NTMU.  The work involved in maintaining and using the NTMU requires an understanding of the data used by the model, the sources of the data, the steps involved in collecting the raw data and transforming it into inputs usable by the NTMU, and some knowledge of VISUM (the software platform for the model). Two to four people are needed for this technical work. 

The next level involves specialists who carry out analysis, to support policy and decision making, using the model. These individuals need to understand both transport policy and the NTMU. These analysts will typically engage with policy and decision makers, and based on their requests/needs, will carry out various analyses using the model.  The number of such analysts will depend on the volume of requests received to carry out analysis using the NTMU.  However, at a minimum, one such specialist will be needed, but depending on the volume of requests for analysis, this number could be more.

The third level involves users of the model's outputs, these are individuals who do need to understand every technical detail of the NTMU, but they need to be able to understand and interpret the results of what is often a complex analysis and translate these results into practical terms relevant for their daily work.

What also needs to be pointed out that besides the technical specialists needed for updating, maintaining and using the model, and the users of the results of the NTMU, it is also necessary to change the approach and thinking about using analysis and models to support policy and decision making.  This is one of our objectives, to contribute to changing how data and models are used to conduct and use analysis to support policy and decision making at the Ministry  Thus, we are spending a lot of time building the Ministry's institutional capacity for maintaining and using models like the NTMU.

Are there many decisions for which the model can help assess effectiveness?

The model can be used to:

Prioritize and choose infrastructure projects for investment.  For example, the model can be used to assess whether a high-speed rail line is a good investment for Ukraine, whether rebuilding a bridge damaged by the war is an urgent need, whether a highway should be built or not, or it’s capacity increased, and decide on the border crossing points at which the capacity needs to be increased.

Evaluate and assess the effects and costs of non-infrastructure policies. For example, what will be the effect of introducing tolls on road traffic, or on the use of private cars in Ukraine, on the mode share of rail transport? These are all questions the model can answer.

Evaluate the impacts of the introduction of new technologies, such as intelligent transport systems or electric vehicles.

Support the recovery and reconstruction of the transport sector in Ukraine.  The NTMU can help to prioritise reconstruction and recovery projects. The NTMU can very identify which projects are most urgent in terms of the overall performance of Ukraine's transport network, and  which projects are less urgent. For example, some infrastructure that has been damaged by the war may not need to be rebuilt because it is not used much in terms of trips.  Much of the Ukrainian transport infrastructure dates back to Soviet times and was built according to Soviet standards, according to some logic that may no longer relevant.  The NTMU can help to identify which projects should be undertaken, and which parts of the damaged infrastructure don’t need to be rebuilt.  Thus, the model can help the Ukrainian Government make transparent decisions based on data, evidence, and analysis to create a recovery and reconstruction program to completely transform transport system of Ukraine.

There have already been some big recovery projects implemented in Ukraine, such as  the restoration of bridges in liberated territories. Have there been attempts to apply model analysis to these projects?

The first real application of the model will be for the M-15 Odesa-Reni highway to relieve congestion on local roads and improve access to the ports. Another example where the NTMU can be used is to analyse the costs and benefits of the rail freight corridor connecting Ukraine to the EU that is being proposed by the European Investment Bank (EIB). The exact location has not been defined yet, and this is part of the analysis that can be done using the model.  The freight that previously went by sea can no longer go by these routes because the ports are now closed, or their capacity is very limited. Even in the future, after this war stops and the ports are once again operating without any restrictions, since you have a neighbor called Russia, you cannot rely solely on the ports, alternatives are needed.  Ukraine needs to build a redundant and reliable transport system to ensure that its economy and people are able to continue functioning even in the event that the ports are not operational. Thus, for example, Ukraine will want to build additional railway lines connecting Ukraine to the EU. The question of course is where exactly should these new lines be built - Ukraine is very large, and building new rail lines is expensive.

The NTMU allows you to analyze the costs and benefits of different routes for cargo delivery not only to the border of Ukraine but also to the final destination. For example, we know that a significant amount of Ukrainian grain goes to various African countries, we know exactly which countries and how much. We also know how much grain goes, for example, to Japan, China, and the other countries. So, depending on what is being shipped, and the final destination, we can quite accurately predict which route will be best for moving grain.

Conducting such an analysis is an example of what the NTMU can be used to do. We haven't done this analysis yet, but we have provided the EIB with both the data and the model for review.

So, at the start, will the transport model primarily be used to analyze projects implemented with donor or budget funds? Is it correct to say that it is advisable to have a regulatory requirement for analyzing such projects based on (the model you developed)?

For any project funded by the EU and/or donor funds, a sound analytic methodology for determining a project's feasibility (the costs and benefits) and the implementation options will be required. The NTMU can be used to estimate the costs and benefits of projects and the feasibility of the project, using real data and the NTMU.

Models are more widely used in Europe to support policy and decision making than in Ukraine, at least in the transport sector. But this is starting to change, the interest in the model is increasing and we are receiving requests to use the NTMU to carry out various analyses. 

Therefore, I think that the NTMU will not only be used to assess and evaluate the feasibility of projects funded by the EU and/or donors, but, hopefully, Ukrainian projects will also make use of the analytic capabilities provided by the NTMU.

Could you provide examples of other cities or communities that have already expressed interest in using this model?

So far, I know about projects in Odesa and Kyiv.  Besides the parallel rail freight corridor project initiated by the EIB, the Ministry is also interested in exploring the development of a high-speed rail within Ukraine.
 

What problems are you facing in your work on developing the NTMU?

The single biggest problem in the model development has been the lack of data.  We have developed a model that should operate at the level of the hromadas, consistent with Ukraine's updated territorial structure. We are using lots of data from the State Statistical Service of Ukraine and other official sources at the level of the hromadas.  Thus, the model needs input data at the level of the hromadas, but such data is simply not available, as most of the statistical data used to be collected at the level of the rayons or the oblasts. We have communicated with the State Statistical Service several times and we have been told that in the context of the current war there are no plans for collecting data at the level of the hromadas. The first data collection at the level of the hromadas is scheduled for 2028. Given the lack of data at the level of the hromada, we had to use an analytical approach to disaggregate the regional data to the level of the hromadas.

But communities can independently collect and provide these data to the model, can’t they? Is there such a possibility?

Yes, there is such a possibility. If someone provides us with data for a specific hromada, we can include it in the model. But we have to use official statistics. Information is not just raw data. Once you have data, and the ability to analyze it, the information and conclusions generated by such analyses are inherently political. Thus, if the information we use is not from official sources, then the users of the outputs from the NTMU will have less trust in the analysis and outputs and the chances are higher that the conclusions will be rejected.

What other problems are there with using the model, besides the lack of relevant statistical data? As far as I know, the regulation of legal and organizational principles of developing and updating of the NTMU requires improvement?

In Ukraine, there is the issue of legislation regulating the collection of data needed for the model, as well as the legislation for use of the model. There is no legislation requiring the collection of relevant input data to update the model.  Without updated data, the model will become outdated and irrelevant in a few years time.

In most countries that use such models for decision-making, there is detailed legislation specifying when and for what the usage of models is required in making policy decisions involving budget funds. In Ukraine, this is not yet the case, however we hope that such changes will soon happen.

Another barrier to using the model is the attitude of policy and decision makers towards the use of model and analysis for making policy decisions.  There is a general skepticism about the uses of models to support the making of policy choices.  There is also a general lack of understanding about the analytic uses of models and their limitations in supporting policy.  This lack of understanding generates a certain distrust of models and their analytic capabilities, limiting the use of models to support policy.

The model is a tool, like GPS or AI. You can use GPS on your phone to track your location, your child's location, location of public transport. You can use it for many things, the application is limited only by your imagination. The process of understanding the tool, and for it can be used, however, takes time.

So, when talking about the constraints and problems for using models, there are three primary issues: relevant, up-to-date data, and reliable data, legislation defining the uses of the model for policy making, and the attitude and mindset of policy/decision makers.

Within this project, we are addressing the main concerns regarding data; a regulatory act on data collection is being developed. But changing the mindset and using the model and institutional capacity will take more time.

I have an example of such a difference in perception. We presented the Ministry with the model's outputs on a specific road section from Cherkasy to Kyiv, and we say it is congested. And someone says: I don't believe this data because I haven't encountered traffic jams on this route. This may be the case, but this does not mean the model is wrong.  One has to think statistically, on a national scale. You need to understand that data or a forecast for a specific section at a specific time does not change the overall results, it does not make them less useful.

The EU project has a deadline of October 31, 2024. When do you plan to transfer the model to the Ministry?

At the moment, we have updated the model and are working on its calibration. Regarding the next steps, we are now developing a plan to create an analytical support unit within the Ministry to work with the model. I am not sure if it will be created before the project's completion, but at least we will prepare an implementation plan.

Are you talking about such a unit within the Ministry?

Yes, it cannot be a private organization. We are considering creating such a unit within the Ministry or with one of the subordinate organizations. For example, it can be a road transport enterprise subordinated to the Ministry or even an organization like JSC "Ukrainian Railways". The organization must have the necessary resources to hire the appropriate staff to work on the model and should be interested in using the model. One of the things we agreed on is more intensive cooperation between the Ministry staff and our project team. So, our expert will provide support to the Ministry’s specialists in work with the NTMU.

The transition process will start soon, and we hope to complete it by April 30, 2025.

Among the initial NTMU projects, you mentioned road and railway transport. What is the interest of other sectors in using the model? Ports? Airports?

At different times within this project, we have communicated with almost all port administrations and SE “Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority”. And yes, of course, they are interested, but I think that both ports and airports have other problems, both sectors are almost non-functional.

One of the weaknesses of Ukraine's transport system is the underutilization of inland waterways as transport arteries. Is this component represented in the NTMU?

In the previous version of the model inland waterways were not included. At this stage, we have added all inland waterways of Ukraine to the model. We also included all locks, which is very important because the locks determine the capacity and routes for inland navigation. Now the model can be used to analyze flows, mainly cargo, on inland waterways.

What is strategically lacking is information on transport costs. If I am a grain producer and want to ship my grain, I can send it by rail, road, or inland waterway transport. Previously, there was the option to ship by sea transport, now it is not available. When making a choice, I consider the costs. But price information is currently lacking in the model. We asked the Ministry to send a request to companies operating inland vessels and inland ports or terminals to provide information on transport costs.

Should information about transport costs also be included in the model? Is this an additional option?

Information about transport costs, including for inland waterway transportation, is essential. Because without this information, we cannot model how choices are made between different modes of transport.

What about the master plan that was supposed to be developed after the transport model was handed over?

The master plan is not being developed. And it will not be developed because now the priority, and for the coming decades, will be the recovery of Ukraine, including its transport sector.

I believe it is really important for civil servants, the Ministry and stakeholders to understand how this model can be used to support recovery.

One of the key elements of efficient recovery will be attracting investments. And I don't mean millions, I'm talking about hundreds of billions of euros. Building high-speed railways, building new connections with Europe, changing the railway system. All of this will cost enormous amounts of money. And again, I remind you - the transport system here is still based on outdated Soviet standards. This all needs to change, including through intentions to join the European Union.

The NTMU will help Ukraine in attracting capital to fund the recovery and reconstruction process.  It will do so because it provides an analytical basis for decision-making, and, very importantly makes the criteria for making decisions transparent.

For example: there is a road from Kyiv towards Poland, the Northern Corridor, where there was a large bridge over the river, which was completely destroyed. And it is being restored. But there is almost no traffic on this road, it seems to be a waste of resources! Why is it being rebuilt? If an analysis had been conducted, it would have shown that traffic on this road has an alternative, N-12, there are local roads that can also cross the river. Yes, it is inconvenient, but now you don't have resources, why are you rebuilding this particular bridge?

The transport model is transparent, anyone can familiarize themselves with its outputs, criticize its assumption, makes suggestions for improving it, and provide additional information. At this stage, sometimes we request some information, if it is not available, we create analytical approaches for filling in the gaps in the data. When data is missing, and an organization has data which they think can be used to filling these data gaps, we encourage them to provide the information to be included in the NTMU.

To conclude, I reiterate – the NTMU will help Ukraine develop a solid programme of recovery and reconstruction projects for transforming the transport sector and attracting funding and investments for these projects.