Russia loses tlns of dollars due to undervaluation of its oil, petroleum products – Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service

Russia has lost trillions of dollars due to the undervaluation of its oil and petroleum products, and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has warned of budget spending cuts if oil prices do not rise, Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (FISU) reported, summarizing the effects of sanctions against the aggressor in 2025.

"The Central Bank of the Russian Federation warned of a reduction in budget expenditures if oil prices do not increase. ‘Russia has lost trillions of dollars due to the undervaluation of its oil and petroleum products,’ said Igor Artemyev, head of the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange," the FISU said in a statement published on its website on Saturday.

Starting January 1, 2026, the base rate of Russia’s value-added tax increased from 20% to 22%. According to experts, the 2-percentage-point increase in VAT will lead to an overall rise in prices in the first half of 2026. In addition, from January 1, 2026, banking commissions on card transactions will become subject to VAT. This will apply, in particular, to acquiring and processing services. The VAT on these services will now amount to 22%; for 20 years, they had been fully exempt from this tax. Beginning in 2026, customs fees charged for customs operations related to the import of various goods into Russia will also increase. The cost of customs clearance for a number of goods imported into the country will rise. For example, for radio-electronic products it will increase almost 2.5 times, from 30,000 to 73,860 rubles per shipment, regardless of its volume.

Also starting January 1, the corporate income tax rate for individuals designated in Russia as "foreign agents" increased to 30% (from 13–22%). In addition, "foreign agents" will be stripped of all tax benefits and deductions available to Russian citizens.

Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service notes that from January 1, 2026, microfinance organizations will be required to demand official confirmation of borrowers’ income for loans of up to 50,000 rubles or to assess income based on the average per-capita income in the region, while State Duma deputies are not required to submit income declarations.

In Russia, over the first 11 months of 2025, damage from economic crimes reached 316 billion rubles, marking a record high for the past three years. In total, more than 101,000 such crimes were identified last year.

International Olympic Committee President Kirsty Coventry emphasized that Russian athletes will not be able to compete under their national flag at the Winter Olympic Games in Milan-Cortina in February of this year, even if a peace agreement with Ukraine is reached.

Russian airlines preliminarily carried 108.5 million passengers in 2025, which is 2.7% lower than the previous year. In particular, passenger traffic at Moscow’s Domodedovo Airport declined by nearly 11% compared with 2024.

In 2025, mobile internet was shut down more than 11,900 times across Russia’s regions. The absolute leaders in the number of shutdowns among Russian regions were the Nizhny Novgorod region (202 days with shutdowns), the Rostov region (200), and Moscow (199).

Case records for lawsuits seeking to have people declared missing or dead have begun disappearing from the websites of Russian courts. Currently, court websites in 50 regions contain not a single such lawsuit registered in 2025, whereas just a month ago there were data on nearly 44,000 such cases for the previous year.

Due to a shortage of coal in Yakutia, nearly 122,000 people may be left without heating.

In addition to the year-round ban on cryptocurrency mining through 2031 in Ukraine’s temporarily occupied territories and in the republics of the North Caucasus Federal District, Russia has added Zabaykalsky Krai and the Republic of Buryatia. It should be recalled that Russia imposed a ban on mining in 13 regions of the country to stabilize the energy system.

More than 400 food service establishments may close in Moscow in 2026, 10% more than in 2025.

Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service also cites data on the international aspect of attitudes toward Russia and Belarus. In particular, Poland’s National Security Bureau stated that Russia and Belarus have intensified airspace provocations in recent months and expects such provocations to be repeated in 2026.

Finnish President Alexander Stubb mentioned Russia in his New Year’s address, stating that relations between the two countries have changed forever. Since 2023, Finland has closed all eight passenger border crossings on its eastern border.

In 2025, Lithuania intercepted 635 balloons that entered its airspace from Belarus. This is 2.8 times more than in 2024, when 226 such balloons were intercepted. Notably, in 2023 there were only three.

Belarus ranked third in the world in terms of the number of sanctions imposed. Since 2020, more than 8,000 people have been convicted in Belarus on politically motivated criminal charges. In total, at least 9,282 people have faced criminal prosecution for political reasons, and these figures are growing every month. As of the end of December 2025, 1,131 political prisoners (including 167 women) were being held in places of detention in Belarus.