Recent U.S. military assistance to Ukraine will "almost certainly" be insufficient in helping Ukraine match or overcome Russia's artillery advantage in Ukraine, however the U.S. and wider Western alliance remain capable of addressing Ukraine's constraints caused by delays in Western security assistance, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said in its latest update.

The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) assesses that recent U.S. military assistance to Ukraine will "almost certainly" be insufficient in helping Ukraine match or overcome Russia's artillery advantage in Ukraine and the estimated Russian daily fire rate of 10,000 artillery rounds. The DIA also assesses that Ukraine "probably" remains capable of continuing defensive operations in Ukraine but is not capable of conducting large-scale counteroffensive operations for at least the next six months.

"ISW recently assessed that both Russian and Ukrainian forces lack the capability to conduct individual decisive war-winning operations and must instead conduct multiple successful operations with limited operational objectives that, in the aggregate, can achieve strategic objectives. ISW continues to assess that Ukrainian forces could use smaller-scale Ukrainian counterattacks and localized counteroffensive operations to liberate territory while avoiding the challenges associated with conducting large-scale counteroffensive operations amid continued Western delays and hesitancy in allocating further military assistance to Ukraine," it said.

ISW also said that Ukrainian forces have conducted several localized counterattacks in northern Kharkiv region and towards Kreminna (in the Luhansk-Donetsk region border area) in recent months, suggesting that Ukrainian forces are already attempting to contest the tactical initiative in select frontline areas.

ISW continues to assess that Ukrainian forces can contest the battlefield initiative and eventually set conditions to conduct both limited and eventually large-scale counteroffensive operations provided timely and appropriate Western security assistance.

"The US and the international coalition supporting Ukraine retain significant influence over Ukrainian warfighting capabilities and Western decisions about Ukraine's resourcing levels and rules of engagement regarding Russian military targets can substantially alter the trajectory of the war," the analysts said.