11:38 08.08.2024

Ukrainian forces advance up to 10 km into Russia's Kursk region – ISW

3 min read
Ukrainian forces advance up to 10 km into Russia's Kursk region – ISW

Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances up to 10 kilometers into Russia's Kursk region amid continued mechanized offensive operations on Russian territory on August 7, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said.

"Geolocated footage published on August 6 and 7 shows that Ukrainian armored vehicles have advanced to positions along the 38K-030 route about 10 kilometers from the international border. The current confirmed extent and location of Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast indicate that Ukrainian forces have penetrated at least two Russian defensive lines and a stronghold," it said in the Russian offensive campaign assessment on August 7.

A Russian insider source claimed that Ukrainian forces have seized 45 square kilometers of territory within Kursk region since they launched the operation on August 6, and other Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces have captured 11 total settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino (1.5 kilometers north of the Sumy region border), Darino (three kilometers north of the Sumy region border), and Sverdlikovo (east of the Nikolaevo-Darino-Darino area), and are operating within Lyubimovka (eight kilometers north of the Sumy region border).

It is also reported that Ukrainian forces fought for and seized the Sudzha checkpoint and the Sudzha gas distribution station (southwest of Sudzha along the 38K-004 highway, 500 meters from the Sumy-Kursk region border). Geolocated imagery posted on August 7 shows that Ukrainian forces captured over 40 Russian prisoners of war (POWs) at the Sudzha checkpoint. Chechen units reportedly suffered very heavy losses in Ukrainian attacks in the Korenovo district on August 7.

The Kremlin's response to Ukrainian offensive activities in Kursk region has so far been contradictory, as Russian officials are attempting to balance presenting the effort as a notable Ukrainian escalation with avoiding overstating its potential implications and risking domestic discontent. Putin met with members of the Russian government on August 7, accusing Ukrainian forces of a "large-scale provocation" in Kursk region and instructing First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov and regional authorities to coordinate assistance in Kursk region.

General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov portrayed the situation as largely under control, however, claiming that Ukrainian forces attacked with about 1,000 personnel and that Russian FSB and the Northern Grouping of Forces have stopped Ukraine's advance and inflicted significant casualties. Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces will complete their operation when they have defeated Ukrainian forces and reached the Kursk region-Ukraine border. Other Russian officials doubled down on these contradictory points, often seeking to strike a balance between the alarmism of a Ukrainian mechanized assault and penetration into Russian territory and the status quo reassurances that the Kremlin "has the situation under control."

"The Kremlin likely seeks to balance its messaging against two contradictory objectives to both discredit Ukraine internationally for conducting this attack into Russian territory and avoid inciting domestic panic about the scale, impacts, and potential outcomes of the Ukrainian operation. The Kremlin risks, however, discrediting itself among certain communities by seemingly dismissing the significance of the attack by framing it only as a 'provocation'," the ISW said.

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