UAH rate drops to new low of UAH 40.9/$1 after NBU's currency liberalization steps
The official hryvnia exchange rate after increasing on Wednesday by UAH 0.05 on Thursday it dropped by UAH 0.17, to UAH 40.8823 per $1, which is a new historical minimum.
According to market participants, towards the end of trading on the interbank market, the rate came close to the level of UAH 41 per $1.
The reference value of the hryvnia exchange rate, set by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) at 12:00, decreased by UAH 0.16 on Thursday, to UAH 40.8423 per $1, while on the cash market the dollar rose in price by UAH 0.12 that day, to UAH 41.10 per $1.
A day earlier, the National Bank announced new easing of currency restrictions, including facilitating the servicing of Eurobonds through dividends from guarantors and guarantors. In addition, from July 11, the NBU expanded the list of defense goods available for purchase abroad for volunteers and allowed businesses to purchase foreign currency to repay loans provided by International Financial Organizations.
Since the beginning of 2024, the official hryvnia exchange rate has fallen by 7.6%, or by UAH 2.88, and since the NBU switched to a managed flexibility regime on October 3, 2023, by 11.8%, or by UAH 4.32.
In general, in June the official exchange rate of the hryvnia decreased by UAH 0.03, to UAH 40.5374 per $1, although in the middle of the month the rate reached a record low in its entire history some UAH 40.6908 per $1, while in May its fall was UAH 0.9.
The NBU explained this weakening by the growth of government spending after receiving external financing in March-April, as well as the influence of the largest package of easing foreign exchange restrictions for enterprises announced on May 3 since the beginning of the full-scale war.
Net sales of dollars by the National Bank in the first week of July decreased to $630.91 million from $670.41 million in the previous week. In June it amounted to $2.99 billion compared to $3.07 billion in May.
Earlier, the Center for Economic Strategy published an updated consensus forecast of seven investment companies and think tanks. According to him, the forecast for the hryvnia exchange rate at the end of this year was lowered from UAH 40.5 per $1 to about UAH 42 per $1, which generally correlates with UAH 42.1 per $1 included in the state budget for the end of 2024. The forecast for the average annual exchange rate was also worsened from UAH 38.7 per $1 to UAH 40.1 per $1 compared to the budgeted level of UAH 40.7 per $1.
