Participants in Economy Ministry’s consensus forecast lower their estimate of expected GDP growth in 2026 to 2.4% and in 2027 to 4.1%
Participants in the October consensus forecast by the Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture have downgraded their estimates for Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) growth for this year from 2.9% to 2.1%, and for next year from 3.9% to 2.4%, compared to April, with estimates varying from 1% to 3.3%.
"The main consensus message remains a high level of uncertainty. Experts noted that the degree of uncertainty regarding future economic development remains extremely high both during martial law and in the period following its end," the agency noted in a publication on Thursday.
According to the report, Ukraine's economic growth forecast for 2027 has also been downgraded—from 4.6% to 4.1%, and for 2028—from 5% to 4.2%. Given these dynamics, the country's GDP by the end of 2028 would be 87.7% of its 2021 level.
The Ministry of Economy notes that the consensus forecast estimates for 2025 have changed the most for the dynamics of exports and imports of goods and services: exports have changed from a 3.6% increase as of April 2025 (annual change in value terms) to a 0.2% decrease in October, while imports have changed from a 3.8% increase to a 13.7% increase. Experts noted that, due to a lack of information on product balances, physical export volumes, particularly agricultural exports, were overestimated. The continuation of military operations, which caused the destruction of production facilities, also negatively impacted export dynamics.
Most experts agreed that they underestimated imports of critical military and defense products, mechanical engineering, pharmaceuticals, intermediate goods, and consumer imports. The latter was primarily due to a significant increase in mail-order sales (particularly private ones), which offer a cheaper alternative to purchasing goods in Ukrainian retail outlets.
The consensus forecast for consumer inflation for 2026 has been lowered from 8.3% to 9% (with a range of values from 6% to 10%), while the hryvnia devaluation estimate has been improved from UAH/$1 46.3 at the end of next year to UAH/$1 44.5 (average annual rate - from UAH/$1 45.3 to UAH/$1 44.14).
According to the publication, the consolidated budget deficit estimate for next year has been downgraded from 15.7% of GDP to 19.1% of GDP, the current account deficit has been downgraded from minus $15.8 billion to minus $35 billion, while the unemployment forecast has been improved from 12.9% to 12.3% (with a range of values from 8% to 13.4%).
"Most experts expect economic growth to continue in 2027-2028, albeit at a more moderate pace than previously forecast. The key conditions for recovery include a stable energy supply (or a minor temporary shortage that can be easily compensated for by imports), reduced logistical constraints, continued support programs for the population and businesses in collaboration with international partners, and the implementation of projects to restore, clear mines, and reclaim agricultural land," the Ministry of Economy noted.
It clarified that expert estimates of all indicators for 2027-2028 are based on the assumption that the war will end in 2026. In this case, experts expect consumer inflation to slow to 7.8% in 2027 and 7% in 2028, unemployment to decrease to 10.5% in 2028, and the consolidated budget deficit to 12.3% of GDP in 2027 and 7.9% of GDP in 2028.
As reported, at the end of October this year, the National Bank downgraded its forecast for Ukrainian economic growth in 2025 to 1.9% from 2.1% due to energy shortages, the destruction of gas production capacity, and labor shortages, and for 2026 from 2.3% to 2%.