Estimate of Ukraine's recovery needs increased from $486 bln to $524 bln - World Bank
The total cost of recovery in Ukraine as of December 31, 2024, is $486 billion over the next decade, which is approximately 2.8 times higher than Ukraine's projected nominal GDP for 2024, according to the updated Ukraine Recovery and Reconstruction Needs (RDNA4) released by the Ukrainian government, the World Bank Group, the European Commission and the UN on Tuesday.
“In the past year, Ukraine's recovery needs have continued to grow due to Russia’s ongoing attacks," said Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal.
Last year, the needs were estimated at $486 billion, and the year before that, $411 billion.
"The RDNA4, which covers damages incurred over almost three years – from February 24, 2022, to December 31, 2024, finds that direct damage in Ukraine has now reached $176 billion, up from $152 billion in the RDNA3 of February 2024, with housing, transport, energy, commerce and industry, and education as the most affected sectors," reads the report.
"According to the current assessment, 13% of the total housing stock has been damaged or destroyed, affecting more than 2.5 million households. In the energy sector, there has been a 70% increase in damaged or destroyed assets since the RDNA3, including power generation, transmission, distribution infrastructure, and district heating. Across all sectors, the regions closest to the frontline (Donetsk, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, Kherson, as well as Kyiv) sustained about 72% of the total damage," according to the document.
“The assessment highlights the extraordinary damage Russia has inflicted on Ukraine. The EU is already supporting Ukraine’s reconstruction and recovery by mobilizing more private investments through the Ukraine Investment Framework, and by helping the country integrate deeper into the EU Single Market. This will be a pillar of Ukraine’s recovery and create new opportunities for both Ukrainian and European businesses,” said EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos.
Reconstruction and recovery needs are the highest in the housing sector (almost $84 billion) of the total long-term needs. This is followed by the transport sector (almost $78 billion), the energy and extractives sector (almost $68 billion), commerce and industry sector (over $64 billion), and agriculture (over $55 billion) sector. Across all sectors, the cost of debris clearance and management alone reaches almost $13 billion," the report states.
"The assessment identifies and excludes over $13 billion in needs across eight sectors that have already been met by Ukraine with the support of its partners and the private sector. For example, according to government data, in 2024, at least $1.2 billion was disbursed from state budget and donor funds for housing sector recovery. Over 2,000 km of emergency repairs were carried out on motorways, highways, and other national roads," it says.
"In 2025, the government of Ukraine, with support from donors, has allocated $7.37 billion to address priority areas such as housing, education, health, social protection, energy, transport, water supply, demining, and civil protection. A total financing gap of $9.96 billion for recovery and reconstruction needs remains for 2025. Mobilizing the private sector remains critical to Ukraine’s successful recovery," it reads.