The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has worsened its forecasts for the migration of Ukrainians: if in April of this year it expected an outflow of 200,000 this year and an inflow of 400,000 next year, now it estimates the outflow this year at 400,000, and next year at 300,000.

"This assumption has been worsened compared to the April Inflation Report due to the significant destruction of the Ukrainian energy system, which is accompanied by long-term power outages and increases the risks for the heating season," the regulator's July inflation report, published on Friday, notes.

The National Bank adds that in addition to everyday difficulties, frequent power outages have a negative impact on production processes, which reduces economic activity and demand for labor, further stimulating migration.

In absolute figures, we are talking about an increase in the number of migrants remaining abroad this year to 6.7 million, and next year to 7 million.

The NBU cites UN data, according to which in the first half of this year, the number of migrants abroad increased by 240,000, to 6.6 million people.

In the new report, the National Bank moved the expected start date of Ukrainians returning home from 2025 to 2026. According to its forecasts, 200,000 Ukrainians may return home in the first quarter of 2026 and the same number by the end of the year, although in the April inflation report the net influx in 2026 was estimated at 800,000 people.

The Central Bank explains the change in its forecasts by both the deterioration of living conditions in Ukraine, including due to power outages, and the factor of greater adaptation of Ukrainians abroad due to the long duration of their stay.

Thus, the NBU now estimates the number of compatriots-migrants abroad at the end of 2026 at 6.6 million versus 5.3 million in the April inflation report.

It is indicated that the number of internally displaced persons will also remain significant, because, according to surveys, a significant part of them have nowhere to return due to significant destruction of residential infrastructure.

"Currently, the negative risks of an even greater outflow of migrants abroad, their smaller and later return prevail. Significant factors for this may be legislative decisions of the governments of recipient countries to deepen the integration of Ukrainian migrants in the host countries, and their children in the educational systems of the host countries, and, accordingly, an increase in the tendency to unite families abroad," the regulator notes.

The National Bank believes that this will affect the supply of labor, consumer demand and restrain economic growth.

"Significant changes in the economy structure and the increased need for skilled labor will lead to further strengthening of imbalances in the labor market, which will stimulate wage growth above productivity growth in certain sectors," the regulator predicts.

On the other hand, the rapid restoration of housing, infrastructure and an increase in the number of jobs due to the economic revival may lead to a more active return of migrants, the central bank notes.